| Exchange
Rate Management Policies in Africa: Recent Experience and Prospects Introductory Note by the
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) Secretariat
Table of Contents
- Overview
- Exchange Rate Instability and
Volatility of African Currencies
- Currency Depreciation, Inflation,
Supply Response and External Competitiveness of African Economies
- Lessons on Exchange Rate Management
in Africa from Case Studies
- Exchange Rate Management: Lessons
from the Experience of South Africa and the Common Monetary Area
- Exchange Rate Policies in Africa:
Recent Experiences and Prospects: Lessons from the CFA Franc Zone
- Conclusion
I. OVERVIEW
- African countries have since the
collapse of the generalized fixed exchange rate regime and the adoption of a generalized
floating system by the industrialized countries in 1973, experimented with various types
of exchange rate arrangements, ranging from a peg to a single currency, weighted currency
basket, managed floating, independently floating exchange rate system and monetary zone
arrangements, such as the CFA Franc Zone and the Common Monetary Area (CMA) of Southern
Africa. The experiences of various African countries with exchange rate arrangements and
management have, therefore, been diverse and varied as these countries have sought to find
an "optimal and sustainable" exchange rate regime. Indeed, exchange rate
management and determining an optimal and sustainable exchange rate arrangement have been
some of the policy challenges facing many monetary authorities in African countries.
Box 1: Exchange Rate Arrangements
in African Countries
(As of End June, 1995)
Type of Arrangement Number of
Countries %
1. Independently Floating 20 37.7
2. Managed Floating 6 11.3 3.
Currency Basket 4 7.5 4.
Single Currency Peg 5 9.5 5.
Monetary Zone Arrangements* 18 34.0
Total Number of Countries 53
100.0
* Countries belonging to a monetary
zone include those in the CFA Franc Zone (fifteen countries) which are pegged to the
French Franc and those belonging to the Common Monetary Area (CMA) of Southern Africa
(three countries) which are pegged to the South African Rand. Although South Africa is a
member of the Common Monetary Area it's exchange rate arrangement is at present that of an
"independently floating system."
Source: Compiled from data obtained
from the IMF: International Financial Statistics, June 1996 1
2. As regards to exchange rate
arrangements, many have moved to liberalize their exchange rate systems and a number have
adopted a "managed floating exchange rate regime" or an independently floating
system. As of end June, 1996 twenty out of fifty-three African countries(or 38 percent)
adopted an "independently floating exchange rate regime", six (or 11.3 percent)
were on a "managed floating system", four (or 9.5 percent) were on a
"currency composite", and only five remained on a "single currency
peg". Although a number of other African countries (eighteen countries or 34 percent)
were also on a fixed peg, these belong to a monetary zone of which fifteen (or 28.3
percent of all African countries) belong to the CFA Franc Zone and three countries (or 5.7
percent) belong to the Common Monetary Area of Southern Africa. Although South Africa
belongs to the Common Monetary Area, it's exchange rate arrangements are classified as
independently floating.
3. The move towards managed floating
exchange rate regime or independently floating exchange rate by African countries has not
been without its challenges and problems. Indeed, the need to change the institutional and
regulatory framework and to develop well functioning foreign exchange markets are some of
the challenges that policy makers have had to face in many of these countries.
Furthermore, the need to understand and appreciate the impact of exchange rate
liberalization on external stability of currencies on, inflation, supply response and
external competitiveness are also some of the challenges that African Governments and
policy makers have to deal with. These are some of the issues that this Introductory Note
tries to flag out in order to guide the discussions on this topic. Also, the Note
summarizes the experience of the countries of the CFA Franc Zone and the South Africa and
the Common Monetary Area with exchange rate management.
II. Exchange Rate Instability and
Volatility of African Currencies
4. The most significant and
noticeable development of recent years has been the move towards liberalization of
exchange rate policy and exchange rate arrangements in many African countries and the
removal of many foreign exchange restrictions. This shift has occurred primarily in the
context of implementation of structural adjustment programmes supported by the World Bank
and the International Monetary Fund and often co-financed by other donors.
5. The late 1980s and early 1990s
were characterized by massive devaluations of African currencies as countries sought to
reduce and/or eliminate the influence of parallel markets for foreign exchange that had
emerged in many of these countries and more importantly to move the real exchange rates of
their currencies closer to equilibrium rates. Many of the countries undertook these
devaluations in the hope that they would improve competitiveness of their exports and also
boost non-traditional exports. These devaluations were also undertaken, in most cases, in
the context of implementation of structural adjustment programmes.
Box 2: Exchange Rates of African
Currencies, 1985 to November 1995
(National Currency per US$, End
of Period)
| Country |
1985 |
1990 |
1993 |
1995 |
| Algeria |
4.773 |
12.991 |
24.123 |
51.465 |
| Botswana |
2.101 |
1.871 |
2.565 |
2.824 |
| Burundi |
111.970 |
165.350 |
264.380 |
248.250(Aug) |
| Cape Verde |
85.375 |
66.085 |
85.992 |
74.305(Jul) |
| Djibouti |
177.720 |
177.720 |
177.720 |
177.720 |
| Egypt |
0.700 |
2.000 |
3.370 |
3.390 |
| Ethiopia |
2.070 |
2.070 |
5.000 |
6.300 |
| Gambia |
3.461 |
7.495 |
9.535 |
9.570(Aug) |
| Ghana |
59.990 |
344.830 |
819.670 |
388.900(Sep) |
| Guinea (Bissau) |
176.00 |
2509.000 |
11464.000 |
18036.00(Jun) |
| Guinea (Conakry) |
n/a |
680.00 |
972.400 |
997.000(Sep) |
| Kenya |
16.284 |
24.084 |
68.163 |
55.5782 |
| Lesotho |
2.558 |
2.563 |
3.398 |
3.664 |
| Liberia |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
| Libyan Arab Jamahiriya |
3.378 |
3.706 |
3.077 |
2.869 |
| Madagascar |
635.800 |
1465.800 |
1962.700 |
4588.300 |
| Malawi |
1.679 |
2.647 |
4.494 |
15.259(Aug) |
| Mauritania |
77.070 |
77.840 |
124.160 |
137.300 |
| Mauritius |
14.310 |
14.322 |
18.656 |
15.259(aug) |
| Morocco |
9.621 |
8.043 |
9.651 |
8.545 |
| Mozambique |
45.980 |
1159.610 |
5343.160 |
10253.000(Aug) |
| Namibia |
2.557 |
2.563 |
3.398 |
3.664 |
| Nigeria |
1.000 |
9.001 |
21.882 |
21.886 |
| Rwanda |
93.490 |
121.120 |
146.370 |
n/a |
| Seychelles |
6.602 |
5.119 |
5.258 |
4.843(Sep) |
| Sierra Leone |
5.210 |
188.680 |
577.630 |
952.380 |
| South Africa |
2.558 |
2.563 |
3.398 |
3.664 |
| Sudan |
2.500 |
4.504 |
217.391 |
558.240* |
| Swaziland |
2.558 |
2.563 |
3.398 |
3.664 |
| Tanzania |
16.500 ) |
196.600 |
479.870 |
610.340(Oct |
| Tunisia |
0.757 |
0.837 |
1.047 |
1.056 |
| Uganda |
14.000 |
540.000 |
1130.200 |
1030.400 |
| Zaire |
18.598 ) |
666.667 |
35.000** |
11402.99(Oct) |
| Zambia |
5.701 |
42.735 |
500.00 |
909.091 |
| Zimbabwe |
1.641 |
2.636 |
6.935 |
9.268 |
| CFA Franc Zone |
378.050 |
256.450 |
294.780 |
496.200 |
Source: IMF: International Financial
Statistics, January 1996 and other Issues. Footnote: The exchange rates for some countries
for 1995 are as at the end of the month indicated.2
The devaluations undertaken by
African countries, and more importantly a move towards market-determined exchange rate
regimes resulted initially in a significant narrowing down of premia between
"official" and "parallel" exchange rates that had existed in many of
these countries. Furthermore, the elimination of cumbersome exchange control measures and
administrative machinery for allocating foreign exchange resulted in an improvement in the
allocation and utilization of the scarce foreign exchange. Nonetheless, one of the side
effects of these developments has been the increased instability and volatility of the
external values of African currencies.
7. Indeed, during the late 1980s and
early 1990s, many of these countries saw the external values of their currencies more than
halved, and in some cases a marked erosion of their value. The effects of these
developments on trade flows and other transactions as well as on the cost of doing
business in a given African country should not be minimized. The impact of devaluation on
importing companies and firms as well as on net-worth of local companies is well
understood. The extent of bankruptcy of firms in following devaluations has also been a
matter of concern, although other firms have benefitted. Currency instability tends to
inject additional costs of doing business, especially for firms operating in the trade
sector and trade-related manufacturing. Evaluating the costs and benefits of devaluation
for an economy is therefore not an easy task. Moving to market-determined exchange rates
has its benefits and economic and social costs. Understanding and appreciating these
elements is essential for a successful exchange rate policy.
8. The extent of currency
instability in Africa witnessed in recent years is reflected in Box 2 above. While one
cannot doubt the wisdom of African Governments in trying to reduce and/or eliminate
overvaluation of their currencies which had characterized the 1980s, nonetheless, the
economic and social costs generated by currency instability have posed problems for
African Governments. The economic and social costs to African countries of these
magnitudes of currency instability should not be minimized, regardless of whatever
benefits currency depreciation may have brought to African countries. Indeed this extent
of currency instability can be inimical to the development of international trade in
Africa. Furthermore, its impact on inflationary expectations can be detrimental to the
achievement by African countries of long-term sustainable development.
9. For some, currencies have
virtually lost their values, as nationals and foreigners have become less willing to
transact in such currencies. A second feature of these developments has been the "dollarization"
of African economies, with its attendant implications.
10. The "dollarization"
of African economies as a result of these developments has also a number of implications.
It tends to reinforce the loss of value of African currencies as both national and
foreigners transact using the dollar. The worst scenario of such a development is when
prices on local markets start to be quoted in dollars. Secondly, the use of the dollar
means that African Governments have lost revenues obtained through "seignorage"
by having the monopoly to print money, This seignorage now accrues to the United States
Government which has the monopoly to print the US dollar. Another negative side effect of
the currency instability has been the shift of resources and energies towards "speculative
activities" which can earn the investor quick returns and the much needed US
dollar, at the expense of productive investment and long-term development.
11. The degree of instability of
African currencies experienced in recent years is vividly reflected in the sharp fall of
the nominal values of many of these currencies against the United States dollar. Among the
currencies whose values fell sharply was the Zairian currency, the Zambian Kwacha, the
Uganda shilling, the Mozambican metica, and the Sudanese Pound. The fall of the Zairian
currency during the years 1985 to 1995 was phenomenal, while the Zambian Kwacha dropped
from ZMK 5.7 to the dollar at the end of 1985 to ZMK 909.1 by the end of 1995. Similarly,
the value of the Uganda shilling fell from UGX 14.0 to the dollar to UGX 1010 to the
dollar during the same period. The value of the Mozambican metica plummeted from MZM 46.0
to the dollar at the end of 1985 to MZM 11,100.0 to the dollar by the end of 1995 and that
of the Sudanese Pound from SDP 2.5 to the dollar to SPD 558.2 to the dollar by end of
1995.
12. A number of other African
countries experienced similar sharp falls in their nominal external values and included:
Algeria, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania. Surprisingly, even
currencies that had experienced relative stability in the past did not escape unscathed
and included those of Kenya, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria and Zimbabwe. They too experienced a
significant degree of currency instability as officials moved towards market-determined
exchange rates and accession to Article VIII of the Articles of Agreement of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
13. The countries of the CFA Franc
zone that had enjoyed relative currency stability awoke to the impact of such instability
following the devaluation of the CFA Franc in 1994. The external value of CFA Franc which
had appreciated sharply against the dollar from XOF 378.5 to the dollar at the end of 1985
to XOF 256.5 to the dollar by the end of 1990, dropped sharply after the devaluation in
1994 and its value was at XOF 490 to the dollar by the end of 1995 and XOF 516.3 at end
April 1996.
14. Despite these developments,
there are positive signs that some currency stability is returning in some countries,
especially in Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda. The Kenya Shilling which had
fallen from KES 16.3 to the dollar at the end of 1985 to KES 68.2 by the end of 1993
gradually appreciated to KES 44.8 by the end of 1994 and appears to have stabilized around
KES 55.0 to the dollar. Similarly, the Malawi Kwacha which fell from MWK 1.7 to the dollar
by the end of 1985 to MWK 15.3 by the end of 1994 has now stabilized around MWK 15.0 to
the dollar. The same appears to be the case with the Tanzania and Ugandan shillings. The
Uganda shilling has actual started to appreciate and moved from UGX 1030.6 to the dollar
at the end of the first quarter of 1994 to UGX 972.1 to the dollar at the end of the first
quarter of 1995 and then once more gradually depreciated and was at UGX 1009.5 to the
dollar at the end of 1995.
15. It should also be noted that
there are African countries which have enjoyed a relative degree of currency stability
over a number of years and include Botswana, Egypt, the Libyan Arab Jamahiriyan Jamahirya
, Mauritius, Morocco, Tunisia and the countries of the Common Monetary Area of Southern
Africa (Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland). Although some of these countries
have experienced a fall in the external value of their currencies, such declines have been
less spectacular as those indicated earlier. Indeed, among the factors that have
contributed to this situation has been adoption by these countries of good economic
management policies and the ability to respond to change.
3. Currency Devaluation,
Inflation, Supply Response and External Competitiveness of African Economies
16. The exchange rate is one of the
most important prices in an economy, because it determines the relative prices of domestic
and foreign goods. It is because of its importance that changes in the exchange rate of a
country's currency often attracts significant debate among academicians, professionals and
policy makers. Significant divergence exists as to the usefulness of devaluation as a
policy tool. Accordingly, different views prevail as to the impact of devaluation on major
macroeconomic variables of output, employment and inflation.
17. There are those who believe that
devaluation as a policy instrument can boost exports and output, and so create jobs. There
are others who are of the view that devaluation often generates inflation and is powerless
to affect economic activity. The latter premise their arguments on the understanding that
devaluation will raise the prices not only of imports, but also, eventually, of
domestically produced goods, that compete with imports. This, therefore tends to push up
inflation, and which tends to rise further still if wages chase prices. Furthermore, if
supply cannot expand in response to the devaluation, rising prices will quickly erode the
initial gains of competitiveness. According to this argument, in the long run, devaluation
will be offset by higher prices.
18. These arguments are not merely
academic in nature as they lie at the centre of the debate as to how effective devaluation
is as policy tool. The truth as to the impact of devaluation on an economy lies between
the two arguments. Indeed in an economy with excess capacity and with real wages flexible
downwards, devaluation may have positive impact on exports and output, and in turn
employment. However, for an economy with supply rigidities and/or wages chasing higher
prices, devaluation is less likely to be an effective policy instrument. In an economy
that has a history of wage indexation, centralized wage bargaining and a history of strong
trade unions, it is unlikely that wage earners will permit their real wages to fall,
following devaluation. In such an environment, wages tend to quickly catch up with prices
and erode the initial competitiveness gained from devaluation. Similarly, devaluation is
likely to be less effective as a policy tool, and in reducing real exchange rates, in a
small open economy where excess capacity to enable the country to take advantage of the
depreciation of its currency may not exist; and often such economies are price takers.
19. Devaluation can be a useful
policy tool, depending on the prevailing conditions and also complimentary policies
accompanying it. Devaluation must go hand in hand with a reduction in domestic demand,
through monetary and fiscal tightening, to make room for exports. For devaluation to be
effective as a policy instrument, nominal wages and prices must be "sticky"
downwards, while real wages must be flexible downwards, at least for a period.
Furthermore, as already stated for devaluation to work, it has to go hand in hand with
tighter fiscal and/or monetary policy.
20. In summary, devaluation can be a
useful policy instrument given that appropriate conditions exist and when accompanied by
complimentary policies. However, devaluation should not be perceived as a soft option for
trying to boost a country's exports and output, and thereby create jobs. It has its
economic and social costs and therefore should not be seen as a panacea for curing all
economic ills facing the African continent.
4. Lessons on Exchange Rate
Management from Case Studies
21. The experiences of South Africa
and the countries of the CFA Franc Zone offer useful and important lessons in exchange
rate policy and management. Firstly, it is worth noting that both the CFA Franc Zone and
the Common Monetary Area (CMA) to which South Africa belongs are based on an "anchor
currency", the French Franc in the case of the CFA Franc Zone and the South
African Rand, respectively. Secondly, monetary policy as conducted by the French Monetary
authorities has a significant bearing on the operations and the functioning of the CFA
Franc Zone, in the same way as monetary policy as conducted by the South African
authorities has a bearing on the operations and functioning of the Common Monetary Area.
In other words, monetary policy as conducted by the authorities of the anchor currency
dictates the general direction of monetary and financial policy in the monetary zones,
including exchange rate policy.
22. Thirdly, the 1994 devaluation of
the CFA Franc offers important lessons of the economic and social costs of adjustment
within a monetary union as well as the role the international community can play in
ameliorating the economic and social costs of adjustment to an exchange rate realignment.
The inconvertibility of the CFA Franc of Central African countries into the CFA Franc of
the West African countries and vis-versa following that devaluation, as well as the
partial convertibility of the two CFA Franc Zone currencies into the French Franc are
other important lessons from that experience. Fourthly, South Africa as one of the
original founding member States of the Bretton Woods Institutions (the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund) in 1945 has gone through the experience of both a
"generalized fixed exchange rate system" and a "generalized floating
exchange rate system" which followed the collapse of the fixed system in 1973.
Accordingly, the case study on "Exchange Rate Management Policies in South Africa:
Recent Experience and Prospects" offer useful lessons not only on how an African
country managed its exchange rate policy under a "generalized fixed exchange rate
regime" but also under the "flexible System." It also provides insight into
the functioning of the Common Monetary Area to which Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and
Swaziland belong.
Exchange Rate Management: Lessons
from the Experience of South Africa and the Common Monetary Area
23. As a signatory of the Bretton
Woods Agreement of 1945, South Africa became party to the system of "stable but
adjustable par values." In other words, to the system of "generalized fixed
exchange rate system" but with adjustable margins. According to the arrangement,
member states of the IMF and World Bank agreed to maintain their exchange rates within one
percent on either side of stated "parity rates." A member was only
permitted to change its exchange rate by more than the fixed margin only in the case of
fundamental disequilibrium in its balance of payments and with the concurrence of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Accordingly, the period 1945-1973 is often
characterized as that of Bretton Woods generalized fixed exchange rate arrangements.
24. Following the accession of South
Africa to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF, its par value was established at one South
African Pound to US dollars 4.03 or equivalent to 3.58143 grams of fine gold. The South
African Pound, as the country's currency was called then, was pegged to the Pound Sterling
by buying and selling rates for Sterling within stipulated margin 1/2 percent. Although
the South African currency was devalued by nearly 30.5 percent against the US dollar
following the 1949 devaluation of the Pound Sterling, the South African Pound remained
pegged to the Pound Sterling. In the ensuing years, the currency remained relatively
stable and its parity in terms of gold was changed only as a result of the decimalization
of the monetary unit.
25. In February, 1961 the currency
unit of South Africa was changed to the South African rand and the gold parity of the new
currency unit was fixed at 50 percent of the old South African pound, i.e. 1.24414 grams
of fine gold to one South African rand. The value of the new currency vis-avis the US
dollar and the Pound Sterling were set at R1.00 = $1.40 and R2.00 = 1 Pound Sterling,
respectively. Despite the 1967 devaluation of the Pound Sterling, the 1969 devaluation of
the French Franc and the German mark, the parity of the South African rand vis-a-vis the
US dollar remained unchanged until December, 1971.
26. As part of the general
realignment of exchange rates following the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system in
1973, the South African rand was devalued by 12.3 percent. A general atmosphere of
instability in the international monetary system ensued and South Africa was forced to
move with the wind in trying to find substitute exchange rate arrangements to those that
had prevailed under the generalized fixed exchange rate system. Frequent changes in
exchange rate arrangements became the order of the day as countries sought to find "optimal
and sustainable" exchange rate arrangements. South African authorities decided to
peg the rand to the Pound Sterling in June, 1972 when the Pound Sterling floated
downwards. But after only four months moved once more to peg the rand to the US dollar.
27. A generalized floating exchange
rate system emerged among industrialized countries after 1973. It was within this context
that the South African authorities decided in June 1974 to adopt a system of "independently
managed floating." This exchange rate arrangement was in place until 1975, when
expectations that the South African rand would be devalued, and yet not supported by major
economic fundamentals, forced the authorities to adopt a policy of keeping the rand/US
dollar rate constant over longer periods and only adjusting this rate on the basis of
major shifts in the country's important economic fundamentals. This type of link between
the rand and the US dollar remained until early 1979.
28. The instability in the South
African monetary and financial market created by generalized floating, formed the basis
for the then President of South Africa to appoint a "Commission of Inquiry"
into the "Monetary System and Monetary Policy in South Africa." The
Commission, commonly known as the De Kock Commission, detailed a number of weaknesses in
the South African monetary and financial markets, including exchange rate arrangements and
management. The Commission recommended the gradual liberalization of foreign exchange
markets and in the medium to long run a move towards market determined exchange rates.
29. The South African Government
accepted most of the recommendations of the De Kock Commission, including those on the
need to reform South Africa's exchange rate system as well as the functioning of foreign
exchange markets with a view to making such markets relatively free from interference by
monetary authorities.
30. A number of changes followed in
the management of the country's exchange rate and foreign exchange markets, and included
the lifting of exchange controls over non-residents and introduction of measures designed
to improve the technical functioning of the spot and forward exchange market. Further
changes were introduced designed to encourage the development of an independent forward
exchange market outside the central bank.
31. Political developments after
1984 and the imposition of financial sanctions by the international community on South
Africa for the Government's apartheid policy, forced the monetary authorities to revert
back to more direct control measures to manage exchange rates. Following the imposition of
financial sanctions, the South African Reserve Bank was forced to re-enter the foreign
exchange market. Direct control measures to regulate and influence capital flows were
re-introduced. Exchange controls on capital transfers by non-residents were also
re-introduced in the form of a distinction between the "financial rand"
and the "commercial rand." Accordingly, a dual exchange rate system was
introduced in South Africa.
32. Additional measures were
introduced in 1985 to intensify exchange controls. Reforms of the exchange rate system and
foreign exchange markets on which South Africa had embarked upon were accordingly
abandoned and put on hold. However, following multi-party elections held in 1992 and the
establishment of the Government of National Unity under President Nelson Mandela, South
Africa once more embarked on reforms of its foreign exchange markets and the exchange
rate.
33. The country was able to
normalize its relations with the international community and to enter into a debt
rescheduling agreement and re-enter international capital markets. On 13 March, 1995 South
Africa abolished the "financial rand" and thereby eliminating the dual exchange
rate system that had existed since 1984. Further progress has been made and is being made
to liberalize the country's foreign exchange markets and to move towards market-determined
exchange rates.
Box 3: Selected Economic
Indicators of South Africa, 1970-1994
Period Real Rate of Import Exchange
GDP Inflation Cover Rate Growth (%)
(in weeks) (1988=100)
| 1970 |
5.2 |
4.5 |
6.6 |
30.2 |
| 1971 |
4.3 |
5.4 |
6.4 |
32.2 |
| 1972 |
1.7 |
7.1 |
-8.7 |
32.9 |
| 1973 |
4.5 |
9.5 |
1.3 |
28.2 |
| 1974 |
6.1 |
11.3 |
1.1 |
29.0 |
| 1975 |
1.7 |
13.3 |
2.4 |
36.5 |
| 1976 |
2.2 |
13.8 |
4.3 |
36.5 |
| 1977 |
-0.1 |
11.1 |
2.1 |
36.5 |
| 1978 |
3.0 |
11.0 |
-3.3 |
36.5 |
| 1979 |
3.8 |
13.1 |
-2.1 |
34.8 |
| 1980 |
6.6 |
13.8 |
-2.3 |
31.3 |
| 1981 |
5.4 |
15.3 |
4.0 |
40.2 |
| 1982 |
-0.4 |
14.6 |
0.8 |
45.2 |
| 1983 |
-1.8 |
12.2 |
-1.1 |
51.4 |
| 1984 |
5.1 |
11.6 |
2.0 |
83.5 |
| 1985 |
-1.2 |
16.4 |
2.5 |
107.5 |
| 1986 |
0.0 |
18.5 |
-2.3 |
91.8 |
| 1987 |
2.1 |
16.2 |
-5.1 |
81.2 |
| 1988 |
4.2 |
12.9 |
4.2 |
100.0 |
| 1989 |
2.4 |
14.7 |
0.3 |
106.6 |
| 1990 |
-0.3 |
14.4 |
-4.4 |
107.8 |
| 1991 |
-1.0 |
15.3 |
-4.6 |
115.3 |
| 1992 |
-2.2 |
13.9 |
-0.4 |
128.4 |
| 1993 |
1.0 |
9.7 |
7.9 |
142.9 |
| 1994 |
2.3 |
9.0 |
n/a |
149.0 |
Source: Computed from data obtained
from IMF: International Financial Statistics, 1994 Yearbook and September, 1995 Issue. 3
An examination of the country's
major economic indicators, including the exchange rate index, shows the various economic
cycles that South Africa has gone through over the years (see Box 2). The exchange rate
index shows that during the period 1970-1974, the value of the South African rand
fluctuated in line with changes in the pegging policy of the monetary authorities. The
period 1975 to 1978 saw relative stability in the value of the rand vis-avis the US
dollar, almost a fixed relationship. The value of the rand against the US dollar fell by
more than 100% during the years 1979 to 1987. The years 1988-1990 saw the South African
rand depreciate by only 7.8 percent. However, in more recent years, the value of the South
African rand vis-a-vis the US dollar has been falling by larger percentage rates. The rand
fell by 38.2 percent against the US dollar during the years 1991-1994.
35. The South African economy
appears to be moving towards recovery as reflected by the country's major economic
fundamentals. The economy which had recorded negative real growth rates during the years
1990-1992, has started registering positive growth rates. Similarly, while the country had
recorded "double digit" inflation rates during most of the 1980s and early
1990s, it now has moved to "single digit" inflation rates. The country's import
cover which had been weak during the previous years has strengthened and as at the end of
1993 the country's external reserves represented 8 weeks of import cover (see Box 2).
These positive developments should provide an important basis for the country to proceed
with its reforms of the foreign exchange markets and the exchange rate system.
36. South Africa is a member of the
Common Monetary Area (CMA) comprising of Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland.
This monetary arrangement started off as a bilateral agreement between South Africa and
Swaziland in early 1974 and then into a tripartite agreement between Lesotho, South Africa
and Swaziland by December 1974. The agreement was replaced in July by a Common Monetary
Area in terms of a Trilateral Agreement between the three countries. However, following
the attainment of independence by Namibia the Trilateral Agreement was replaced by a
Multilateral Monetary Agreement between the four countries which guides the operation and
functioning of the Common Monetary Area.
37. The main features of the
Multilateral Agreement of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) are as follows: the South African
rand serves as de facto common currency for the monetary area, although other
members have the right to issue their own national currencies which requires prior
agreement between South Africa and the issuing Government; there are no restrictions on
the transfer of funds within the monetary union, whether for current and capital accounts;
the residents of Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland have a right of access to the South
African capital and money market; the member countries share a pool of foreign exchange
reserves, managed by the South African Reserve Bank, although other members also have the
right to hold foreign reserves managed by them; the four countries apply a common exchange
control policy towards the outside world. Furthermore, the contracting parties must
permit, through normal clearing systems, the repatriation of notes and coins issued by
them which may circulate in other countries of the Common Monetary Area; the South African
Government must make compensatory payments to others which represent an imputed return on
the rand currency circulating as legal tender in other areas; and the contracting parties
to the Agreement must co-operate with each other in the collection and exchange of
statistical and other data that are required for the effective administration of the
Agreement. Regular consultations are held with a view to reconciliation of different
member countries' interests in the formulation and implementation of the Agreement.
Provisions exist in the Agreement for settlement of disputes among members through the
establishment of "arbitration tribunals."
38. The exchange rate system in
South Africa, and the Common Monetary Area, as a whole has functioned relatively
effectively since the 1980s, notwithstanding the fact that other members of the monetary
union have virtually forfeited independence of monetary policy, exchange rate and fiscal
autonomy. Furthermore, it would appear that the benefits for these countries belonging to
the Common Monetary Area outweigh the disadvantages. Nonetheless, some members of the
monetary union are of the view that much can be done to improve the effectiveness of the
Common Monetary Area arrangements and more importantly in "democratizing the
decision-making process", which is currently dominated by decisions of the South
African Government and the South African Reserve Bank.
39. The experience of South Africa
and the Common Monetary Area offers useful lessons in exchange rate management policy and
the functioning of a monetary union. Furthermore, the Common Monetary Union may serve as
an important nucleus for future efforts at monetary and financial integration in East and
Southern Africa. (b) Exchange rate Policies in Africa: Recent Experiences and Prospects:
Lessons from the CFA Franc Zone
40. The CFA Franc Zone is a
framework for monetary cooperation between France and her former colonies in central and
West Africa. Within the framework of this cooperation, France guarantees the common
monetary unit (the CFA Franc) of the Zone through the special institutional arrangements.
41. The countries of the CFA Franc
Zone were members initially of a wider Franc Zone which included Indo-China and part of
North Africa. The Franc Zone dates back to the time of the French Empire and was initially
conceived as a temporary institutional arrangement linking France and its colonies with a
view to enable the countries to wither the depression of the 1930s. Monetary cooperation
between France and the African countries was institutionalized into the CFA Franc zone
agreements after the colonies attained independence in the 1960s.
42. The fundamental principles of
cooperation between France and her colonies were explicitly stated in the Colonial Pact
(and the Colonial Currency Act) whose main elements were that: - products of the colonies
could only be shipped to the metropolitan market (France); sea transportation between
colonies and the metropolitan and vice versa, as well as the link between colonies, was
reserved to the French sea authorities; the colonial market was closed to foreign
products, the metropole providing all necessary manufactured goods to the colonies;
colonial products had the privilege of being favourably treated on the metropolitan
market, as guaranteed by protection rights; and colonial products could not be
manufactured in the colonies but exclusively in the metropolitan territory.
43. The Colonial Pact was,
therefore, intended to establish the colonies as providers of primary products and raw
materials and consumers of manufactured goods of the metropole. According to the Colonial
Pact, the colonies were not to be encouraged to produce manufactured goods and hence not
to industrialize. To make the Colonial Pact effective, some form of monetary arrangement
was required and hence the creation of the Franc Zone in which the French Franc became the
dominant and anchor currency.
44. Following the attainment of
independence in the 1960s by the colonies, new arrangements were worked between France and
the newly independent states, which culminated in the creation of the CFA Franc zone. In
1962, the west African Monetary Union (L'Union Monetaire Quest Africaine,UMOA) was
established and comprised of Dahomey (now Benin), Cote D'Ivoire, Upper Volta (now Burkina
Faso), Mauritania, Niger,and Senegal. Togo joined the Union in 1963 and Mali which
initially refused to ratify the agreement joined in 1984. Guinea (Conakry) refused to
ratify the agreement and established its own central bank and currency unit. However, it
subsequently changed its currency unit to the Guinea Franc and linked it to the French
Franc. The CFA franc Zone currently comprises of: Benin, Burkina Faso, Comoros, Cote
D'Iviore, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal and the TOM-DOM.
45. The Central Bank of West Africa
(Banque de l'Afrique de l'Ouest) established to serve the French colonies in West Africa
was changed in 1959 to the Central Bank of West African States (Banque Centrale des etats
de L'Afrique de L'quest, BCEAO). The bank became the monetary authority of the CFA Franc
Zone in West Africa, although the main powers for monetary policy remained with the French
authorities and the Bank of France.
46. In Central Africa, the CFA Franc
Zone that emerged after attainment of independence by the colonies comprised of: Cameroon,
Congo, Chad, and gabon. A common central bank, the Central Bank of Central African States
(Banque des Etats de L'Afrique Centrale, BEAC) was established. Although the members did
not create a monetary union as in West Africa, they established a customs union called,
L'Union Douaniere des Etats de L'Afrique Centrale (UDEAC). Equatorial Guinea, a former
Spanish colony, joined the central bank and the customs union. The other members of the
zone are Comoros and TOM-DOM. Although the currency unit of the central African CFA Zone
is the CFA franc, unlike in West Africa, each CFA bank note bears the name of each
individual country.
47. The current members of the Franc
Zone in Africa comprise the two main parts of the zone in UMOA and BEAC. The main
principles that guide the Franc Zone are: fixed parity between the French Franc and the
CFAF, fixed at FF 1.0 =CFAF 50 since 1994 and only changed in 1994 to FF1.0= CFAF 100;
free transferability without limit among member countries, although in recent years there
appears to be limited transferability; pooled reserves, the zone uses a common foreign
exchange policy against the rest of the world; and full convertibility of the CFAF to
French Franc through the special operations account opened at the French Treasury by the
two central banks (BCEAO and BEAC) which hold the foreign exchange reserves of all members
of the zone.
48. As stated by Alechi M'Bet and
Amlan Madelaine Niamkey, the basic principles underlying the Franc Zone are: the Bank of
France is lender of last resort of the whole financial system of the Franc zone; the
French Treasury can in theory grant unlimited credit to the operations account; the Bank
of France and the French Treasury are actually the two institutions that hold effective
monetary sovereignty over the franc Zone as a whole; and since the operations account
balances, although in the name of the French Treasury, are held by the Bank of France, the
Bank plays a central role in the CFA system.
49. This arrangement implies that
the nominal exchange rate is exogenous to the countries of the CFA zone and cannot
therefore constitute a policy variable for monetary authorities in the zone. Furthermore,
the financing of payments imbalances in the zone is rather unique in that the French
Treasury guarantees through the operations account settlement of such deficits. However,
the countries of the zone confront certain restrictions with regards to the use of
monetary and fiscal policy in the context of the arrangements.
50. According to Alechi M'Bet and Ms
Niamkey, some of the advantages to member states of belonging to the CFA Franc zone
include: easy capital flows within the zone, by virtue of the guarantee provided by
France; reduced inflationary pressures emanating from an expansionary monetary policy
because member states are denied the use of monetary policy as an instrument of policy by
the nature of the agreement; credibility of the CFAF, as a result of being backed by the
French Franc, allows the countries of the zone greater borrowing capacity outside the
zone; and monetary cooperation which has enabled the countries of the CFA Franc zone to
avoid "balkanization" of their monetary and financial system as compared to the
situation which developed in Anglophone Africa after independence.
51. However, a number of
disadvantages to member States as a result of belonging to the zone have been cited by
critics and include: the argument that the arrangement contributes to the domination and
extroversion of the economies of member states and their heavy dependency on France; lends
itself to a spirit of laxity; results in over-use of fiscal policy as an instrument of
policy; and that the CFA Franc is fundamentally a currency of colonial nature. Tchundjang
argues that fixity of parity does not necessarily translate into stability of the
country's exchange rate and in the case of the CFA Franc, fluctuations in the French Franc
vis-a-vis other major currencies automatically translate into instability in the CFA Franc
and related economic and social costs of adjustment. Trade and financial flows, including
debt service payments denominated in other hard currencies become more expensive for the
CFA Franc zone countries when the French Franc depreciates. He also argues that the system
tends to encourage investment towards products and activities needed by the metropolitan
country rather than by countries of the zone.
52. Notwithstanding these
shortfalls, many are convinced that the CFA Franc zone has served its members well. Trade
flows between the countries of the zone have been much higher than in many other
subregions of Africa, often facilitated by the use of a common currency, the CFA franc.
Furthermore, the pooling of reserves has enabled some of the countries of the zone to
finance a higher level of balance of payments deficit than would have hitherto been
possible, especially Cote D'Iviore. Lack of monetary policy as an instrument of policy has
enabled the countries of the zone to escape many of the bad habits rampant in Anglophone
Africa of financing such deficits through "inflationary finance."
53. The 1994 devaluation of the CFA
Franc revealed some fundamental weaknesses in the system as currently conceived because it
does not provide for timely adjustment to the exchange rate of the CFA Franc in response
to significant changes in economic fundamentals of the zone. Moreover, the quick response
by the international community in providing financial assistance to the zone, both in the
form of debt relief and additional funding, in order to ameliorate the adverse effects of
the devaluation of the economies of the zone was testimony of good will that can be shown
to Africa by the international community.
5.Conclusion
54. Recent experience of African
countries with regards to exchange rate management and evolution of foreign exchange
markets, including those of CFA Franc Zone and the Common Monetary Area of Southern
Africa, provide some important lessons on the challenges facing these countries in the
management of their foreign exchange markets and exchange rates. The primary challenge
facing most of these countries is the shift from controlled foreign exchange markets and
administratively determined exchange rates to liberalized markets and market-determined
exchange rates. Another important element of the lessons to be derived from the recent
experiences of African countries belonging to a monetary/currency union such as in the CFA
Franc Zone and the Common Monetary Area of Southern Africa is the difficulty of
harmonizing macroeconomic policies among members of the union, particularly as regards
fiscal and monetary policies.
55. The important lessons that can
be learnt from the recent experiences of African countries with management of foreign
exchange markets and exchange rates may be summarized as follows: The desirability of
determining an optimal and sustainable exchange rate regime within a framework and
consistent with broader macroeconomic goals and addressing the challenges of moving from
controlled foreign exchange markets and administratively set exchange rates to liberalized
markets and market-determined exchange rates; The necessity of establishing the
institutional and legal framework needed for efficiently functioning foreign exchange
markets and market determined exchange rates; Defining specific roles for the various
operators in foreign exchange markets (central banks, commercial banks and foreign
exchange dealers) in order to ensure the smooth functioning of the markets and to minimize
systemic risks; Defining the role of the Central Bank in the liberalized foreign exchange
markets and market determined exchange rates; Understanding the linkages between exchange
rates movements and their impact on the real sector; and
56. The recent experiences of
African countries with foreign exchange markets and exchange rate management, have also
revealed the challenges posed by a system of monetary/currency union. Developments in the
CFA Franc Zone and the Common Monetary Area of Eastern and Southern Africa, indeed shed an
important light on the challenges Governments and policy makers in these areas have had to
face and the difficult decisions they have to make. The challenges that policy makers have
to deal with in these monetary zones have included: The difficulties of harmonizing fiscal
and monetary policies within a given monetary zone; The challenges of determining an
anchor currency and ensuring that policies undertaken by the country of the anchor
currency are not detrimental to the economies of the other member states; The challenges
of ensuring transparency, coordination and consultation in the decision-making process
within the monetary union/currency zone; The difficulties of allocation of the economic
and social costs of adjustment within the union/currency zone and the distributional
aspects of the benefits derived.
57. The recent experiences of both
the CFA Franc Zone and the Common Monetary Area of Southern Africa the difficulties that
Africa will encounter in its effort to accelerate the process of monetary and financial
integration as well as the challenges many of them will face in the management of their
exchange rate policies and overall macroeconomic stability. It is essential, therefore,
that African countries develop the capacities and capabilities to be able to comprehend
and deal with the changing circumstances. The need for a strong, but transparent,
regulatory and supervisory machinery is more important in liberalized foreign exchange
markets than in regulated ones. Accordingly, the difficulties of managing liberalized
foreign exchange markets and market-determined exchange rates should be appreciated and
understood. The sharing of country experiences in this respect is one of the purposes of
this sixth session of the Conference of African Ministers of Fiance. |