I. Introduction
1. The management of socio-economic change is a complex process that requires a multiplicity of skills and factor inputs. From the standpoint of development management, the major components involved can be itemized as follows: economic policy decision-making processes and structures, and the interactions that help to shape them; policy research institutions and organizations; the interlinkages between economic research and policy decision-making; and, finally, development policy implementation modalities and structures. Policy analysis and formulation is, thus, one element, albeit a key element, of development management.
2. The current emphasis placed on competent socio-economic policy analysis is driven by two considera-tions. First, policy analysis has been a neglected dimension of development management in Africa. This is evi-denced by the increasing intellectual role of foreign experts and the multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on African economic issues and the undue influence exercised by the latter on the substance of national economic policy. Thus, improving policy analysis has been listed as one of 10 priorities in development management in Africa in the 1990s.1 Second, competent policy analysis is a requirement for accurate diagnosis of socio-economic problems and articulation of plausible policy options for dealing with identified problems - an essential first step in development. Hence, a critical mass of policy analytic and management capacity is required for managing socio- economic development and transformation.
3. Given the nature, content, scope and complexity of the historic challenge facing the African countries, it is more than ever clear that the speed of economic recovery and transformation must per force depend on the effectiveness of indigenous capacity in mastering the strategy of socio-economic policy analysis and development management. Thus, building policy analytic capacity must proceed alongside with building management capa-city, for development to be sustained. At the same time, it is important to foster links between policy analysis, on one hand, and management of implementation of development policy on the other. This process is referred to as policy interface, and various institutional mechanisms have been devised for promoting policy interface in various African countries.2
4. There are three distinct but closely related facets to building capacity for socio-economic policy analysis and management. These are production of the needed skills for policy analysis and management, generating policy analysis and consumption or end-use of policy analysis. The first two may be classified as supply side, while the last one, demand side of policy analysis and management. This categorization is useful in that it helps to determine the type of interventions for building policy analytical capacity and also in ascertaining the institu-tional framework for developing each of the three facets of capacity on an individual country basis.
5. In what follows, an attempt is made, first, to examine the current status of capacities for building for policy analysis and development management in Africa. This is followed by an examination of priorities for capacity building and for socio-economic policy analysis and development management in African countries, and the goal on which capacity building efforts should focus. Finally, a framework agenda is also outlined detailing the strategies and the modalities for effective action on the part of the African Governments and insti-tutions, and their development partners.
II. Current Status of Capacities for Policy Analysis and Development Managment in Africa
6. The recognition that low supply of, and low and variable demand for, policy analysis are a constraint on Africa's economic development has not only spurred national actions but also several international initiatives for building policy analytic and management capacities in Africa. The international initiatives have taken either the form of free-standing technical assistance by bilateral agencies and foundations, or loans from multilateral development agencies, or specially designed actions by a consortium of agencies. The African Capacity Building Initiative (ACBI) exemplifies the consortium-type initiative aimed at addressing all three facets of the building of policy analytic and management capacity in Africa.3 At present, the ACBI is focusing its efforts on 10 African countries, namely Botswana, Burundi, Cte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria, Senegal, the Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe. It is the case, however, that individual African countries have different levels of policy analytic and management capacity; as such, the nature and scope of interventions for building and sustaining this capacity in each individual country will differ.
7. What certainly appears common are the institutional frameworks for supply and demand of policy analytic and management capacities in Africa. The institutional frameworks are designed to respond to each component of the three facets, namely production of the policy analytic and management skills, generation of policy analysis, and use of policy analysis (consumption). Having the right mix of a supporting infrastructure is also essential for effective and efficient use of policy analytic and management capacity. Indeed, the question of developing an appropriate supporting information infrastructure appears to have been neglected or taken for granted in many efforts in capacity building for policy analysis and development management.
A. The framework of existing institutions for policy analysis and management
8. The four main institutional sources for generating policy analysis in Africa are government departments, private sector associations, regional/subregional institutions and non-governmental organizations. The reason why priority is given to building policy analytic and economic management capacity in government agencies is that governments perform certain critical functions that the other institutions are not entrusted with. To name but a few, only governments manage the macro-economy, coordinate national actions for development, collect and disburse taxes for public services, and promulgate laws to regulate business transactions.
9. The dominant roles in policy analysis and economic management in African countries are played by what may be called the "central guidance cluster agencies". These agencies, which design and implement develop-ment polices, coordinate macro-economic actions and allocate resources for development, also tend to be the main source of generating and using policy analysis. These agencies include Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, Ministry of Economic Planning or National Planning Commission and the President's office. The relative influence of any of these agencies in the process of economic management varies from country to country. It would appear, however, that the influence of planning ministries or commissions is on the decline in many African countries; mainly because pre- occupation with short-term economic crisis management has supplanted long-term economic planning. Even so, the need for long-term strategic planning is widely recognized and being fostered.4 Long- term strategic planning is an essential vehicle for integrating discrete short- and medium-term programmes into promoting long-term development objectives.
10. The prominent roles that the central guidance cluster agencies play in the formulation and implementation of national development explains why these agencies usually lay first claim to having in- house capacity for policy analysis. Usually, each of these central agencies has a department of research or macro-economic policy or policy planning. A recent study5 of four countries (Ghana, Uganda, the Tanzania and Zambia) found that these arrangements exist to some degree in all of them. It is a finding that is broadly repre-sentative of the practice in many African countries. These departments are responsible for undertaking in- depth analyses of trends and issues, and presenting policy options to senior government officials and political leaders responsible for economic management. It should be emphasized that the need for and application of policy analytic and management skills are as essential for the central agencies as for the sectoral departments or agencies such as agriculture, trade, industry, education and health.
11. Though most African Governments have internal mechanisms for generating policy analysis, still these mechanisms often do not meet the needs of wide range of government operations. Hence, the need for govern-ment policy decision-makers to tap the reservoir of skills and expertise available in their nation's universities and research institutes and centres. This process of policy interface promotes full and effective use of available indigenous expertise. An ECA study had found that the most common modalities of policy interface in the six African countries6 studied were through consultancies and research assignments to experts from research insti-tutes and universities, through membership of experts in government task forces, standing or ad hoc committees or their secondment to government departments for short periods.
12. Some notable or unique patterns of interactions were found in that study. In Nigeria, the National Insti-tute of Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) is a semi-autonomous Government-sponsored "think-tank" through which the Government benefits from the research, analysis and advice of the academics in the institute. In Senegal, the National Economic and Social Council brings together academics and representatives of government to deliberate and formulate national policy on various issues. In Ghana, the Civil Service Law mandates the establishment of Ministerial Advisory Boards that bring together top management of each ministry and carefully selected "outside" experts mostly academics from Universities and research institutes. This has enabled many University staff to participate in the government's policy development process.
13. Regional and subregional institutions/associations have also been important sources for both generating policy analysis and management training. Principal among these are the Institute for Economic Development and Planning (IDEP) in Dakar, Senegal; the Eastern and Southern African Management Institute (ESAMI) in Arusha, Tanzania; the African Association for Public Administration and Management (AAPAM) in Nairobi, Kenya; the Council for the Development of Economic and Social Research in Africa (CODESRIA) in Dakar, Senegal; and the African Training and Research Centre in Administration for Develop-ment (CAFRAD) in Tangier, Morocco. An important new institution is the African Economic Research Consor-tium in Nairobi dedicated to suporting policy- oriented research in key areas in macro-economic policy, such as external debt and trade.
14. The private sector and non-governmental organizations are also important institutional sources of generat-ing policy analysis and research in African countries. Typically, these efforts are centred around national economic societies, the national manufacturers' associations and the national chambers of commerce and Indus-try. In addition, there are semi-autonomous economic and social research centres, usually affiliated to universi-ties or independent in other cases. Some examples are the Nigerian Institute for Social and Economic Research (NISER) in Ibadan, Nigeria; the Economic Research Bureau in the Tanzania; the Institute of Development Studies in Nairobi; the Centre ivoirien de recherche économique et sociale (CIRES) in Abidjan; the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research in Accra, Ghana; the Development Study and Research Centre in Khartoum, the Sudan; the Institute of National Planning in Cairo, Egypt; and the Institute of Develop-ment Research in Addis Ababa. Another growing source of generating independent policy analysis and research are the semi- autonomous institutions in various countries. The African Capacity Building Foundation has pro-vided assistance for the establishment of the Centre for Policy Analysis in Ghana; the Economic Policy Research Centre, Uganda; and the Economic and Social Research Foundation in the Tanzania. Pri-vately owned policy research centres are yet another source of policy analysis and research in Africa. Two pro-minent examples are the African Centre for Development and Strategic Studies and the Centre for Applied Social and Economic Research in Nigeria.
B. Human resource development for policy analysis and management
15. Policy analysis and development management are dynamic and interactive processes requiring expertise of many disciplines. As such human resources development for policy analytic and management capacity should be sufficiently broad to respond to the vast needs of socio-economic development. However, there is a core of disciplines that are particularly relevant. These are economics, sociology, public administration, business administration, and political science. Indeed, for some of these disciplines, policy analysis is a part of the curri-culum.7 Typically, the universities are the main suppliers of training in these disciplines in African countries. In some few cases, the economic and social research centres and management institutes are involved in training in these disciplines or conducting training in policy analysis for officials from government departments.
16. The national institutes of public administration (NIPAs) or management development institutes are important institutional sources for training in management, but also of generating policy analysis. Most of these institutes were established when the role of the State, indeed the public sector, was different from what it is now expected to play. A major challenge for these institutions, then, is to re- orient their curricula to respond to the current institutional and human resources needs of development management in Africa when the private sector and the markets are expected to play an increased role in development, while the State is expected to assume catalytic functions.
17. At present, there are two main challenges in producing a critical mass of these essential skills required for policy analysis and management. One key issue is that the national institutions that provide training in these disciplines are so ill-equipped that they are not able to graduate top quality students and in sufficient numbers at the Masters and Ph.D. levels, who can undertake competent policy analysis, research and management assign-ments. Secondly, as the conditions of service of university teachers, in particular the real wages have fallen sharply, many have left either for the private sector or for better paid assignments in foreign countries.
18. There is, of course, the additional problem that the relatively few students who graduate from these disciplines are easily induced into high-paying jobs in the private sector. This does not represent such a terrible loss of expertise, since this calibre of highly trained persons in the private sector can be accessed for advice in policy design or formulation by government. Since the private sector, itself is an important institutional source of independent policy analysis and research, there is merit for it to have a policy analytic and research capa-bility.8
C. Infrastructure in support of policy analysis and management
19. Policy analysis and management requires an effective supporting information infrastructure. This generally happens most effectively if countries have adopted national information policies, which evidence their realization that information is a resource for development which requires proper management throughout the planning and management process, as well as timely collection of statistical and other information and the com-petent management of such data and information. At present, these conditions are not met in many African countries, however. The state of information resource management in Africa over the past two decades has been of considerable concern to African Governments, central statistical offices, various primary and secondary users of African statistics and other information multilateral and bilateral donor agencies.
20. For example, the brain-drain of statistical staff in the public sector has continued due to poor pay scales and poor career prospects. Training of statistical staff in the African region takes place at universities and specialized statistical training institutes. Within the framework of the Statistical Training Programme for Africa (STPA), a regional programme executed at ECA, a number of statisticians have been trained during the last 15 years of the programme. There are 16 centres participating in the programme. Eight centres outside Africa are also associated to the programme. With regard to information workers, the situation has been less brain-drain than insufficient training for staff in these areas, especially with regard to computerized methods in information management essential at this point in time. Most information staff working in the region were trained in traditional methods of librarianship, and a recent survey showed that very few opportunities exist for their in-service training and upgrading.
21. With regard to the production of statistics, the national statistical services (NSS) have continued to be at the centre of production and dissemination of socio-economic data required for policy analysis and develop-ment management in Africa. Other organizations such as the central bank have continued to compile socio-economic data. The methods of collecting data required for socio-economic policy analysis and development management in Africa have continued to be censuses, surveys and use of administrative records. Censuses in particular those of population, agriculture or industry have tended to be carried out once every 10 years in African countries. The majority of African countries have conducted one population census since attainment of their political independence, others have conducted two or three population censuses. With respect to agricul-tural and industrial censuses, these have not been conducted by countries as periodically as population censuses mainly due to funding problems and, at times, insufficient manpower.
22. The multiplicity of sources of statistical data in every African country means that issues of coordination of data producers have been significant. There has been, for many countries of the region, a total absence of formal mechanisms for coordination among data producers, despite the existence of coordination aspects in their Statistics Acts or Ordinances.
23. There are two aspects of coordination, namely coordination of activities within the same institution and coordination of activities between institutions. Attempts to coordinate data production within an institution have met with some success but institutional coordination has met with very little success. Some of the African coun-tries have established producer-to-producer committees and user- to-producer committees as ways of coordinating data production. Attempts to coordinate data production under the umbrella of users and producers committees have met with little success. There is need to find mechanisms to foster institutional coordination and avoid unnecessary duplication of efforts in data collection and processing in the African region.
24. Since the advent of the ECA Pan-African Development Information System (PADIS) and at their own initiative, some 38 member States have established national development information networks for the coordina-tion across sectors of development information. While these networks are at widely varying stages of develop-ment from country to country, in the most advanced they comprise electronic networks to link regional and sec-toral information centres with national development information centres connected to international data and information networks. Out of the 38, some are still in the incipient stages, but commitment has been made at national level to work toward these goals. The location of the national coordinating mechanism varies between countries as well, but includes ministries of planning and development, science and technology commissions, national library services and national universities.
25. Many African countries have established forecasting and early warning systems covering specific areas. Through these systems, short-term forecasts of the economy have been made. The data produced has comple-mented that obtained through the traditional methods of censuses, surveys and administrative records. The infra- structural arrangements for the system generally require the composition of committees with representation from cooperating institutions which are the main actors in socio-economic policy analysis. Such committees have had the task of evaluating the quality of available data from the various services and the preparation of forecasts on the basis of available time-series data and other relevant information.
26. In the area of food security, forecasting and early warning systems to assist in the formulation of food policies and programmes exist in many African countries. Some countries have established "steering commit-tees" for forecasting national accounts aggregates and other indicators of economic performance. Issues which have usually arisen with regard to these committees have been the membership and coordination mechanisms of such committees. Membership normally includes all actors involved in socio-economic policy analysis who should be allowed to play their role adequately. It should be mentioned that in many Afric