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Subregional Outlook: Eastern Africa
(ECA - EA-SRDC, Kigali )
East and Southern Africa Subregional Follow-up Conference to the World Social Summit
15-17 March, 1999 Nairobi, Kenya

A. Economic and Social Outlook

1. The real GDP growth rate of the group of Eastern African countries increased from 2.8 % in 1995 to 3.0 % in 1996 and about 3.9 % in 1997 or weighted average growth rates of 4.9 % (1995) 4.3 % (1996) and 3.5 % (1997). The current average GDP growth rate is above the average population growth rate of the subregion. Inflationary pessures have continued to be contained through dynamic management of monetary and fiscal policies and the establishment of Revenue Authorities. However; GDP performance by sectors shows that in most cases agricultural activity; especially food production, was stifled by erratic weather conditions, including, the EL NINO effect, in 1997 compared with 1996. Thus, the overall socio-economic situation indicates that economic performance in the Eastern Africa subregion depends heavily on what happens to the agricultural sector and what is done to boost agricultural development.

2. The social scenario during 1996-1998 indicates that social conditions have been improving for those countries that are relatively free of civil strife and armed conflict. Persistent population displacements in some of the countries because of social unrest tend to disrupt productive activities. Poor weather conditions and insecurity problems have exposed many countries of the subregion to the vulnerability of food shortages and poverty. The proportion of the total population living below the poverty line still remains relatively high and in some cases has increased dramatically. The aggravated poverty situation in the subregion has been exacerbated by some of the side effects of the ongoing structural adjustment programmes and capacity bottlenecks in the subregion.

3. The region’s recent estimated average under five mortality ratio (U5MR) stands at about 149.5 per thousand of live births. It ranges from the lowest 20 in Seychelles to the highest 195 in Ethiopia and Eritrea. Prcentage of the population with access to safe water in the subregion averaged at a very low 41 % during 1990-96. Although a relative improvement was registered in the overall literacy rate, female literacy rate still remains low, particularly in rural areas. The demographic trend of the subregion shows that population growth rate is relatively high. The average for the subregion is 3.0 % : it ranges from the smallest growth rate of 1.7 % for Seychelles to 3.8 % for Tanzania (as compared with Sub-Saharan Africa’s average of 2.9 %). The striking feature of the demographic in the subregion is that an average of 52% of the total population is under 18 years of age.
4. This has serious implications for employment policy management, dependency ratio and the population policy of the countries in the subregion. The acute unemployment situation, increasing poverty and the diversion of scarce resources to civil unrest and armed conflict in most of the countries of the subregion tend to adversely affect the continued growth of GDP. These challenges call for concerted action by all countries in the subregion and the international community to provide productive assistance to restore peace and create the environment for regional co-operation and integration for sustainable development to flourish.

B. Progress in achieving the goals of WSSD

5. Peaceful countries in the Subregion (Djibouti, Kenya, Madagascar, Seychelles and Tanzania) achieved significant progress in implementing anti-poverty programmes with an increased share of the social sectors in public expenditures, especially for basic education and community health services. In those countries, although the real incomes level increased only steadily. The environment was made conducive enough to bring about the involvement of the private sector, along with Governments, in the expansion of remunerative employment as well as basic social services

6. On the contrary, in those countries facing socio-polital instability and/or involved in conflicts such as Burundi, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Erytrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Rwanda and Uganda, structural constraints to social advancement were compounded by conjunctural constraints , including not only the destruction of social infrastructures but also increased military expenditures that constrained resource allocation to social sectors. The massive movement of populations during the mid-1990s, especially in the rural sectors, severely affected rural assets and resulted in reduced income levels. For Rwanda, World Bank "Poverty Update" (The World Bank, February 1998), indicates : (i) a rapid growth in income poverty, with 70 per cent of all households falling under the poverty line in 1997; (ii) an increase in the depth of poverty (gap between average income and poverty line); and a change in the characteristics of poor household with an increased number of female headed poor households.

7. With the exception of Seychelles, the debt burden also remained a major constaint to social advancement in nearly all countries of the subregion.

8. In assessing the status of implementation of the recommendations of WSSD by countries in Eastern Africa, each of the goals has been analyzed based on most recent data and information. The wall chant prepared by the ACC Task force on Basic Social Services for All was therefore the main source of information although there were other supplementary sources.

The WSSD goal was that all governments should promote full access to preventive and curative health care to improve the quality of life. .

9. During the decade 1987 – 1997, majority of countries in Eastern Africa had achieved very high levels of population with access to health care services. Access here refers to the proportion of population that can reach appropriate local health services by local means of transport in no more than one hour. The highest proportion of population having access to health services (80%) were Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania. These countries were followed by Kenya (77%) and Madagascar (65%). The Democratic Republic of Congo (26%) and Somalia (27%) were those countries with the least population having access to health services. The remainder of countries are able to reach appropriate health care services.

The second goal of WSSD required that by the year 2000, a reduction of severe and moderate malnutrition among children under five years of age by half of the 1990 level should be achieved.

10. It should be understood as that percentage of children under 5 years of age who have a weight that is more than two standard deviations below the median weight-for-age of the Standard NCHS reference population. On this basis of indicator of feeding or food availability, more than two thirds of children of all other countries in Eastern Africa are probably well- fed with the exceptions of Ethiopia and Eritrea where underweight prevalence were respectively 41 and 48 per cent,

11. Accordingly, maternal mortality ratio should be understood to be the number of deaths of women occurring over a year while pregnant or within 42 days (six weeks) of termination of pregnancy irrespective of the cause of death, per 100,000 live births per year.

12. Of all countries in the world levels of maternal mortality have persistently been highest in Africa. The estimates of maternal mortality ratios for 1990 indicate that levels were greater than one thousand in six of the countries in Eastern Africa. Somalia (1,600) had the worst of the world conditions of maternal mortality followed by Eritrea (1,400) and Ethiopia (1,400) Burundi (1,300), and Uganda (1,200). The other countries had MMR of less than 1000 deaths. Madagascar (490) followed by Djibouti (570), Kenya (650), Tanzania(770) and DR Congo (870).

13. These high levels of maternal mortality ratios compared to those of developed countries of Europe and North America where estimates were less than 100 in 1990. The implication is that the problem of maternal mortality will remain of great concern for some time to come. Although data are lacking it will most probably be that the commitment will not be achieved by countries in Eastern Africa by the year 2000.

14. In this respect infant mortality is the probability of dying before age 1 year per 1,000 live births

15. The levels of infant mortality for the period 1990 – 97 indicate that IMR was greater than 100 in seven countries and more than 50 in all countries in the Subregion. Estimates of IMR were highest in Rwanda (139) followed by Somalia (122), Uganda (120), Burundi (120), Ethiopia (119), Djibouti (115) and Eritrea (107). Kenya (71) had the lowest level of infant mortality followed by Tanzania (80) Madagascar (93) and DR Congo (95).

16. The estimates for the period 1990 – 97, of under five mortality were also highest in Rwanda (233) followed by Uganda (194), Somalia (189), Burundi (188) and Ethiopia (186). Under 5 mortality was comparatively lowest in Kenya (105). If the targets to be achieved was 70 per 1000 or less, then countries in the Subregion are unlikely to achieve their commitment.

WSSD required that all countries should strive to ensure the complete access to primary school or an equivalent level of education by both girls and boys as quickly as possible, and in any case before one year 2015. Furthermore, countries that have achieved the goal of universal primary education (UPE) are urged to extend education and training and facilitate access to and completion of education at secondary school and higher levels.

17. All countries in the Subregion give greater value to education as schools and other educational institutions were available. However, the ratios vary greatly among the countries and between girls and boys. Kenya (71/73) had the highest enrolment ratios for girls and boys while Somalia has had its lowest ratios implying that there must have been a breakdown in the educational system in that country. In all other countries between one third and less than half of school age population were enrolled in either primary or secondary school. However, there exist differentials in enrolment that greater in Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia where there were more boys than girls in school. It is expected that the gap should be closed by 2005.

18. Regarding adult illiterary rate among countries, the WSSD commitment was that adult illiteracy should be reduced to at least half its 1990 level with emphasis on female literary. It should be understood that the proportion of the population who are illiterate is expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 years and above. Such a person is considered illiterate if he/she cannot read and write a simple statement.

19. Levels of illiterary for both females and males were highest in Burundi (78/51) and Ethiopia (75/55). Kenya (30/14) and DR Congo (32/13) were the lowest. However, greater number of females were unable to read and write in Djibouti (67/40) and Uganda (50/26) than their male counterparts.

7. Percentage of population with access to Safe water and Sanitation

20. Data on these crucial indicators of development are largely inadequate to collect and analyse. However, the majority of people have no access to safe drinking water in almost all countries that have reliable data. Djibouti (90%) alone has majority of its population with access to safe water and sanitation.

The WSSD commitments for countries were that by the year 2000, life expectancy at birth of not less than 60 years should be achieved in every country.

21. The average number of years that a newborn could expect to live, if he or she were to pass through life subject to the age specific mortality ratios of a given period, is an important indicator of development.

22. The estimates show that there are differentials between males and females. The norm is that females have greater life span than males. Among countries in the Eastern Africa subregion, only Seychelles (76/66), Comoros (63/58), Eritrea (58/53), Madagascar (58/55), Kenya (55/53) DR Congo (54/50) and Djibouti (53/49) have life expectancy at birth which is greater than 50 years. All other countries have estimates below 50 years. However, there are some countries like exceptionally Rwanda (42/42) and to some extent Uganda (44/44) that have very low estimates of live expectancy at birth.

(See attached, the Table of Social indicators in countries of Eastern Africa)

Indicators of EA-SRDC Countries (1997)

Source : Various UN Charts and World Factbook internet resources.