Sequencing
of EPAs implementation critical – ECA Paper
By Andrew Allimadi
Any Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) reached between the European Union (EU) and African countries will need to allow for a long and sequenced implementation period in order to benefit African countries, according to a seminar paper presented by Stephen Karingi of the Trade and Regional Integration Division of ECA.
The
current EPAs negotiations are seeking to open both EU and African markets on a full
reciprocal basis by the beginning of 2008. Although least developed countries will be
allowed to stagger tariff reductions towards the EU, the envisaged period is only twelve
years.
However, using the GTAP general equilibrium model to analyse the impact of EPAs on African countries, Karingi and his team conclude that if the full reciprocity clause is honoured, Africa will suffer significant welfare losses.
The advise to African negotiators is therefore to focus on the removal of trade barriers on inter-African trade in the early stages of the negotiations; and press for full duty-free and quota-free access to EU markets without granting EU reciprocal rights. The EU will need to benevolently accept this asymmetry as their contribution to African development.
This asymmetry will allow African countries to develop supply-side capacities to eventually compete with EU firms both in African and global markets. The phase in period for a full reciprocal trade agreement with the EU should therefore be something like 25 years, not the 12 years envisaged in the current EPAs negotiations.
Click here to download the full paper.