Kigali, 3 October 2025 (ECA) - The UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), through its Sub-Regional Offices for Eastern and Central Africa, co-hosted the 2025 Joint Session of the Intergovernmental Committee of Senior Officials and Experts (ICSOE) under the theme: “Investing in Productive Capacities and Trade for a Resilient Future.”
Held online on 1st October 2025, the session brought together senior policymakers, economists, private sector leaders, and development partners to assess the socioeconomic performance of both subregions and explore strategies to strengthen resilience through trade and industrial transformation.
A key insight from the session was the contrast in intra-regional trade – the intensity of intra-African trade is much more intense in Eastern African than in Central Africa, and trade between the two sub-regions is very low, underscoring the untapped potential for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to help deepen integration.
Inflation trends remain uneven. While countries like Kenya and Tanzania have maintained single-digit inflation, others such as Burundi and Ethiopia have faced fairly persistent double-digit rates, with Burundi peaking at over 45% in mid-2025.
Speaking on behalf of ECA Deputy Executive Secretary and Chief Economist, Ms. Hanan Morsy, Jean Luc Mastaki stressed that: “Economic uncertainties are exacerbating an already fragile global outlook, marked by fiscal constraints and rising debt.”
“Strengthening long-term resilience and reducing vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Africa requires building on key pillars, including infrastructure, human capital, environmental sustainability, and technology,” he said.
Eastern Africa continues to show robust growth, with GDP projected to reach 6.1% in 2025, outperforming both the continental average (3.9%) and high-income economies (just 1.4%). Meanwhile, Central Africa’s growth remains more volatile, heavily influenced by oil price fluctuations.
The meeting highlighted the urgent need to address structural vulnerabilities in both regions, including low levels of export diversification, limited industrial capacity, and high exposure to external shocks such as commodity price volatility and aid cuts.
“We must move beyond short-term fixes. Investing in productive capacities—especially in manufacturing, infrastructure, and skills—is the only way to build resilience and reduce dependence on volatile commodity markets,” said Andrew Mold, Director of ECA’s Eastern Africa Office.
Trade performance also diverges. Some Eastern African countries recorded strong export growth in 2024, particularly for gold and coffee exports, while others, such as Djibouti and Madagascar, were affected by the disruption to international trade routes caused by the conflict in Yemen, in the former case, or by falling volumes and prices for key commodities, in the latter case.
The uncertainty in global trade caused by the imposition of high tariffs by the United States in April 2025, does not seem to have adversely impacted the region yet. Indeed, total African exports to the United States market rose by 21.6% between January and July 2025, while China’s exports fell by 35.6% over the same period, reflecting a marked reorientation of global trade flows.
Experts reinforced the need for comprehensive action.
John Bosco Kalisa, CEO of the East African Business Council, stressed that "Productivity levels are low, and diversification remains a challenge. We must address the underlying factors—skills, inputs, and infrastructure—to unlock our potential."
The 2025 ICSOE called for greater investment in productive capacities, the acceleration of AfCFTA implementation through digital customs procedures and better cross-border infrastructure, the promotion of inclusive industrialization, and the strengthening of climate-resilient agriculture and green growth initiatives.
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