African continental free trade agreement (AfCFTA) impact assessment for Zambia: final report

This study examines the potential impacts of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on Zambia’s industrialization, export competitiveness, and gender inclusion. Using quantitative simulations and stakeholder consultations, it finds that AfCFTA implementation is likely to increase Zambia’s exports, production, and overall welfare, particularly in agriculture, textiles, and light manufacturing. The analysis suggests that women may experience greater welfare gains than men due to their participation in labor-intensive sectors. However, persistent barriers such as limited access to finance, skills, technology, and formal markets could constrain the benefits for women. The study concludes that targeted gender-responsive policies, stronger institutional capacity, and support for industrial diversification are essential for Zambia to fully leverage the AfCFTA for inclusive and sustainable economic transformation.